List of p(doom) values

p(doom) is the probability of very bad outcomes (e.g. human extinction) as a result of AI. This most often refers to the likelihood of AI taking over from humanity, but different scenarios can also constitute "doom". For example, a large portion of the population dying due to a novel biological weapon created by AI, social collapse due to a large-scale cyber attack, or AI causing a nuclear war. Note that not everyone is using the same definition when talking about their p(doom) values. Most notably the time horizon is often not specified, which makes comparing a bit difficult.

  • Yann LeCun
    one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta

    (less likely than an asteroid)
  • Vitalik Buterin
    Ethereum founder

    (Specifically means AI takeover)
  • Geoff Hinton
    one of three godfathers of AI

    (chance of extinction in the next 30 years if unregulated)
  • Machine learning researchers

    (From 2022, median value is 5%)
  • Lina Khan
    head of FTC

  • Paul Christiano

    (Cumulative risks go to 50% when you get to human-level AI)
  • Dario Amodei
    CEO of Anthropic

  • Yoshua Bengio
    one of three godfathers of AI

  • Elon Musk
    CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

  • Emmet Shear
    Co-founder of Twitch, former short-term CEO of OpenAI

  • AI Safety Researchers

    (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)
  • Scott Alexander
    Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

  • Eli Lifland

  • AI engineer

    (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)
  • Joep Meindertsma
    Founder of PauseAI

    (The remaining 60% consists largely of "we can pause".)
  • Holden Karnofsky
    Executive Director of Open Philanthropy

  • Jan Leike
    alignment lead at OpenAI

  • Zvi Mowshowitz
    AI researcher

  • Daniel Kokotajlo
    OpenAI researcher & forecaster

  • Dan Hendrycks
    Head of Center for AI Safety

  • Eliezer Yudkowsky
    Founder of MIRI

What about yours?

We've built the AI Outcomes App to help you think about how probable the various outcomes from AI are.

Try it out