Top

Results will appear as you type

    List of p(doom) values

    p(doom) is the probability of very bad outcomes (e.g. human extinction) as a result of AI. This most often refers to the likelihood of AI taking over from humanity, but different scenarios can also constitute "doom". For example, a large portion of the population dying due to a novel biological weapon created by AI, social collapse due to a large-scale cyber attack, or AI causing a nuclear war. Note that not everyone is using the same definition when talking about their p(doom) values. Most notably the time horizon is often not specified, which makes comparing a bit difficult.

    Press the p(doom) percentage to open the source.
    • 99.99%

      Roman Yampolskiy
      AI safety scientist

    • >95%

      Eliezer Yudkowsky
      Founder of MIRI

    • 83.9%

      Russian Roulette (10 trigger pulls)

    • >80%

      Dan Hendrycks
      Head of Center for AI Safety

    • 70%

      Daniel Kokotajlo
      Forecaster & former OpenAI researcher

    • 60%

      Zvi Mowshowitz
      Independent AI safety journalist

    • 10-90%

      Holden Karnofsky
      Co-founder of Open Philanthropy

    • 50%

      Emad Mostaque
      Founder of Stability AI

    • 10-90%

      Jan Leike
      Former alignment lead at OpenAI

    • 46%

      Paul Christiano
      Head of AI safety, US AI Safety Institute, formerly OpenAI, founded ARC

    • 40%

      AI engineer

      (Estimate mean value, survey methodology may be flawed)
    • 40%

      Joep Meindertsma
      Founder of PauseAI

      (The remaining 60% consists largely of "we can pause".)
    • 35%

      Eli Lifland
      Top competitive forecaster

    • 33.8%

      Gunshot wound to the chest

    • 33%

      Scott Alexander
      Popular Internet blogger at Astral Codex Ten

    • 30%

      AI Safety Researchers

      (Mean from 44 AI safety researchers in 2021)
    • 10-50%

      Geoff Hinton
      one of three godfathers of AI

      (Recently said "Kinda 50-50" on good outcomes for humanity. Earlier he mentioned 10%.)
    • 5-50%

      Emmett Shear
      Co-founder of Twitch, former interim CEO of OpenAI

    • 20%

      Reid Hoffman
      Co-founder of LinkedIn

    • 20%

      Yoshua Bengio
      one of three godfathers of AI

    • 10-25%

      Dario Amodei
      CEO of Anthropic

    • 16.7%

      Russian Roulette (1 trigger pull)

    • 15%

      Lina Khan
      head of FTC

    • 10-20%

      Elon Musk
      CEO of Tesla, SpaceX, X

    • 9-19.4%

      Machine learning researchers

      (Mean in 2023, depending on the question design, median values: 5-10%)
    • 10%

      Vitalik Buterin
      Ethereum founder

    • 5-10%

      Nate Silver
      Founder of FiveThirtyEight

    • 2%

      BASE jumping every week for 1 year

    • 0.38%

      Forecasting Research Institute Superforecasters

      (From the same study: Domain experts estimated 3% AI x-risk, and AI catastrophe at 12%)
    • <0.01%

      Yann LeCun
      one of three godfathers of AI, works at Meta

      (less likely than an asteroid)
    • 0.00002%

      Shark attack (yearly risk)

    Do something about it

    However high your p(doom) is, you probably agree that we should not allow AI companies to gamble with our future. Join PauseAI to prevent them from doing so.